The odds
as of Oct 19, 05:25 UTC- Before Oct 1, 2026 5% —
- Before Jan 1, 2027 5% −1
- Before Nov 1, 2026 1.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$119K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Oct 1, 2026; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Benjamin Netanyahu has been arrested before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, "arrested" means: Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant Being formally booked or processed following detention The following scenarios would satisfy the Payout Criterion: Benjamin Netanyahu is handcuffed and taken to a police station Benjamin Netanyahu surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested in any country and this is reported by a Source Agency Benjamin Netanyahu is detained at an airport or border crossing and formally arrested The following scenarios would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: An arrest warrant being issued but not executed Benjamin Netanyahu being briefly detained but not arrested Benjamin Netanyahu being questioned or interviewed without arrest Benjamin Netanyahu being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring without physical custody Benjamin Netanyahu being named in an indictment without arrest Benjamin Netanyahu being arrested after Oct 1, 2026 Protective custody that is not an arrest
Settlement sources: law enforcement agency with jurisdiction over the location where the arrest occurred; Fox News; Semafor; The Information; CNBC; the Associated Press; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; Politico; MSNBC; The Washington Post; Reuters; The New York Times
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