The odds
as of Oct 29, 14:20 UTC- At least 1520 score 99% —
- At least 1530 score 99% —
- At least 1540 score 99% +58
- At least 1550 score 47% +21
- At least 1600 score 5.5% +1
- At least 1650 score 2.5% —
- At least 1700 score 1.5% —
- At least 1750 score 1.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$100K
Traded in all$429K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, At least 1520 score; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If an AI model has a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
See it on Kalshi ↗