The odds
as of Oct 7, 06:40 UTC- Colombia 96% —
- Comoros 10% —
- Mauritania 9.9% —
- Maldives 9.7% —
- Belize 9% —
- Iran 5% —
- Indonesia 4.9% —
- Saudi Arabia 3.1% −2
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$400K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Colombia; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Israel and Colombia normalize diplomatic relations before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The agreement must be ratified before Jan 1, 2027 to be included within the Payout Criterion.
Settlement sources: The New York Times; Israel
See it on Kalshi ↗