The odds
as of Nov 6, 20:17 UTC- Above $4.25 14% −9
- Above $4.30 9.5% −1
- Above $4.35 7% −10
- Above $4.40 4.5% −1
- Above $4.45 5.5% —
- Above $4.50 7% —
- Above $4.55 5.5% −8
- Above $4.60 4.5% +1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−44 pts
Above $4.25, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 1: 75% · Nov 2: 42% · Nov 3: 43% · Nov 4: 22% · Nov 5: 18% · Nov 6: 14%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above $4.25; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $4.25 at any time from November 1, 2026 through November 30, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: AAA
See it on Kalshi ↗