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KalshiCloses January 1, 2030

China overtakes USA’s economy by 2030?

The market puts it at 18% — about 2 in ten — on Kalshi, as of Oct 15, 22:23 UTC. It's up 8 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 18% ▲ 8 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 15, 22:23 UTC

Chance of yes 18% +8

Traded today$1K

Traded in all$131K

Yes, 7 days+1.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price

Oct 8: 16% · Oct 9: 17% · Oct 10: 15% · Oct 11: 14% · Oct 12: 14% · Oct 13: 14% · Oct 14: 14% · Oct 15: 18%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word

If China has overtaken US GDP by 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources: IMF

See it on Kalshi ↗

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