The odds
as of Oct 6, 16:29 UTC- Chance of yes 5.5% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$5.5M
Yes, 7 daysunch
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 29: 5.5% · Sep 30: 5.5% · Oct 1: 5.5% · Oct 2: 5.5% · Oct 3: 5.5% · Oct 4: 5.5% · Oct 5: 6% · Oct 6: 5.5%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
See it on Polymarket ↗