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PolymarketCloses November 4, 2026

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

The market puts it at 51% — about 5 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 28, 16:21 UTC. It's down 3.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 51% ▼ 3.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 28, 16:21 UTC
  • Chance of yes 51% −3.5
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$42K
Yes, 7 days−6.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 20Oct 2851%

Oct 21: 61% · Oct 22: 63% · Oct 23: 57% · Oct 24: 60% · Oct 25: 54% · Oct 26: 53% · Oct 27: 55% · Oct 28: 51%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.
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