The odds
as of Oct 15, 16:26 UTC- Before 2027 45% +15
- Before November 13% +4
- Before September 2% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$97K
Favourite, 7 days+13 pts
Before 2027, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 8: 33% · Oct 9: 32% · Oct 10: 30% · Oct 11: 28% · Oct 12: 20% · Oct 13: 21% · Oct 14: 25% · Oct 15: 33%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2027; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the FDA announces Reclassification of BPC-157 to Category 1 of the Bulk Drug Substances List before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion is satisfied by placement of BPC-157 in either Category 1 or Category 1 Bulk Drug Substances Under Evaluation on the 503A Bulk Drug Substances list, as either designation restores compounding eligibility. Removal from Category 2 alone, without placement in Category 1, does not satisfy the Payout Criterion.
Settlement sources: Food and Drug Administration
See it on Kalshi ↗