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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2029

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

December 31, 2028 leads at 38% (about 4 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC
  • December 31, 2028 38% —
  • December 31, 2027 13% —
  • December 31, 2026 3.4% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$827
Traded in all$431K
Favourite, 7 days−1 pts

December 31, 2028, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 538%

Sep 28: 36% · Sep 29: 36% · Sep 30: 36% · Oct 1: 39% · Oct 2: 39% · Oct 3: 39% · Oct 4: 38% · Oct 5: 38%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) awards a Millennium Prize for any of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems, or otherwise officially declares any of these problems solved on its website or in an official communication, by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve solely based on a qualifying declaration by CMI that one of the six remaining unsolved Millennium Prize Problems has been solved, regardless of whether the solution takes the form of a positive proof, counterexample, disproof, or any other resolution accepted by CMI. A Millennium Prize award will qualify as an official declaration, but is not required; an official CMI statement that a problem has been solved is sufficient on its own. Whether the solution was produced in whole or in part by artificial intelligence, and whether any recipient accepts or declines a prize, will not be considered. A published or publicly posted proof will not qualify on its own, regardless of its acceptance by the mathematical community. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Clay Mathematics Institute (e.g., https://www.claymath.org); however, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to confirm that a qualifying CMI declaration or award has occurred.
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