The odds
as of Oct 6, 17:22 UTC- Chance of yes 4.6% +1.6
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$1.4M
Yes, 7 days+1.6 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 29: 3% · Sep 30: 3% · Oct 1: 3.2% · Oct 2: 2.9% · Oct 3: 3.4% · Oct 4: 3.4% · Oct 5: 3% · Oct 6: 4.6%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗