The odds
as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC- None in 2026 76% +1
- Anthropic 12% −0.5
- Google 9.8% −1.6
- OpenAI 2.6% −0.6
- xAI <1% —
- Alibaba <1% —
- DeepSeek <1% —
- Z.ai <1% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$132K
Favourite, 7 days−8.5 pts
None in 2026, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 85% · Sep 29: 83% · Sep 30: 73% · Oct 1: 77% · Oct 2: 78% · Oct 3: 76% · Oct 4: 75% · Oct 5: 77%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
See it on Polymarket ↗