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PolymarketCloses April 1, 2027

US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?

March 31 leads at 29% (about 3 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 30, 05:19 UTC. It's up 1.5 points in the last 24 hours.

March 31 29% ▲ 1.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 30, 05:19 UTC
  • March 31 29% +1.5
  • December 31 14% −7.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$6K
Traded in all$29K
Favourite, 7 days+5 pts

March 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 22Oct 3029%

Oct 23: 24% · Oct 24: 31% · Oct 25: 29% · Oct 26: 25% · Oct 27: 27% · Oct 28: 28% · Oct 29: 29% · Oct 30: 29%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the United States files a civil or criminal action against U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar in any United States federal court that seeks to revoke her naturalized citizenship, or whose success — whether by judgment, conviction, or otherwise — would revoke or require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The following will not qualify on their own: a civil or criminal action whose success would neither revoke nor require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship; a referral, an investigation, a subpoena, an executed search warrant, a grand jury proceeding, or a public statement of intent to seek denaturalization by any official. Voluntary dismissal, withdrawal, denial, or any other post-filing development will not affect resolution once a qualifying action has been filed. The primary resolution source will be the public docket of the relevant United States court (accessible via PACER) and/or an official announcement from the U.S. Department of Justice; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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