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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

US charges Hormuz fees by...?

The market puts it at 3.8% — a long shot, about one in 27 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 6, 22:25 UTC.

The odds

as of Oct 6, 22:25 UTC
  • Chance of yes 3.8% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$988K
Yes, 7 days−0.7 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 28Oct 64%

Sep 29: 4.4% · Sep 30: 4.4% · Oct 1: 4.2% · Oct 2: 4.2% · Oct 3: 4.1% · Oct 4: 4% · Oct 5: 4% · Oct 6: 3.8%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement. The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection. The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
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