The odds
as of Nov 4, 19:14 UTC- Chance of yes 1.7% —
Traded today$811
Traded in all$32K
Yes, 7 days−1.4 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 28: 3.1% · Oct 29: 3.1% · Oct 30: 3.2% · Oct 31: 3.7% · Nov 1: 2.2% · Nov 2: 2.1% · Nov 3: 2.1% · Nov 4: 1.7%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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