SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?

• November 30, 2026 89% +0.5
• November 15, 2026 55% +2.5
• Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? 47% −3
• Successful splash down? 43% +9
• Chopsticks catch Starship? 31% +2
• Super Heavy booster explodes? 24% −39
• October 31, 2026 6.5% +1.5

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Oct 2: 89% · Oct 3: 90% · Oct 4: 90% · Oct 5: 85% · Oct 6: 87% · Oct 7: 90% · Oct 8: 88% · Oct 9: 89%