The odds
as of Oct 5, 19:24 UTC- Chance of yes 82% —
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$814K
Yes, 7 days−3 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 85% · Sep 29: 85% · Sep 30: 84% · Oct 1: 84% · Oct 2: 84% · Oct 3: 83% · Oct 4: 82% · Oct 5: 82%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
See it on Polymarket ↗