The odds
as of Oct 8, 21:24 UTC- March 31, 2027 25% −1
- December 31, 2026 9% −1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$8K
Traded in all$287K
Favourite, 7 days−2 pts
March 31, 2027, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 1: 27% · Oct 2: 27% · Oct 3: 27% · Oct 4: 26% · Oct 5: 26% · Oct 6: 26% · Oct 7: 26% · Oct 8: 25%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
See it on Polymarket ↗