The odds
as of Oct 12, 13:45 UTC- No Next Chancellor before 2028 62% −7
- Hendrik Wüst 14% —
- Alice Weidel 4.5% —
- Boris Pistorius 4.2% —
- Markus Söder 3.5% −1
- Lars Klingbeil <1% —
- Carsten Linnemann <1% —
- Felix Banaszak <1% —
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$82K
Favourite, 7 days−7 pts
No Next Chancellor before 2028, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 5: 69% · Oct 6: 69% · Oct 7: 69% · Oct 8: 69% · Oct 9: 69% · Oct 10: 69% · Oct 11: 69% · Oct 12: 62%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordFriedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗