The odds
as of Oct 5, 10:30 UTC- Chance of yes 6.1% —
Traded today$504
Traded in all$267K
Yes, 7 days−0.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 6.2% · Sep 29: 6.2% · Sep 30: 6.3% · Oct 1: 5.8% · Oct 2: 5.7% · Oct 3: 5.7% · Oct 4: 5.9% · Oct 5: 6.1%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordIf any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
See it on Polymarket ↗