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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by...?

The market puts it at 9.5% — a long shot, about one in 11 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 21, 21:22 UTC. It's down 4 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 9.5% ▼ 4 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 21, 21:22 UTC
  • Chance of yes 9.5% −4
Traded today$756
Traded in all$61K
Yes, 7 days−6 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 13Oct 2110%

Oct 14: 16% · Oct 15: 14% · Oct 16: 14% · Oct 17: 14% · Oct 18: 14% · Oct 19: 14% · Oct 20: 14% · Oct 21: 9.5%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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