The odds
as of Oct 16, 04:26 UTC- Maintain current rate 87% +13
- Hike 1-25bps 14% −8
- Cut more than 25bps 1% —
- Cut 1-25bps 1% —
- Hike more than 25bps 1% —
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+5 pts
Maintain current rate, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 9: 83% · Oct 10: 83% · Oct 11: 83% · Oct 12: 78% · Oct 13: 77% · Oct 14: 76% · Oct 15: 89% · Oct 16: 87%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Maintain current rate; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the Reserve Bank of Australia takes the action of maintain current rate at its November Monetary Policy Board meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings.
Settlement sources: Reserve Bank of Australia; Trading Economics
See it on Kalshi ↗