The odds
as of Oct 13, 17:24 UTC- Chance of yes 5.3% —
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$559K
Yes, 7 days+0.7 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 6: 4.6% · Oct 7: 4.8% · Oct 8: 4.7% · Oct 9: 4.7% · Oct 10: 4.8% · Oct 11: 5% · Oct 12: 5.1% · Oct 13: 5.3%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗