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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

The market puts it at 5.3% — a long shot, about one in 19 — on Polymarket, as of Oct 13, 17:24 UTC.

Yes 5.3%

The odds

as of Oct 13, 17:24 UTC
  • Chance of yes 5.3% —
Traded today$5K
Traded in all$559K
Yes, 7 days+0.7 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 5Oct 135%

Oct 6: 4.6% · Oct 7: 4.8% · Oct 8: 4.7% · Oct 9: 4.7% · Oct 10: 4.8% · Oct 11: 5% · Oct 12: 5.1% · Oct 13: 5.3%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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