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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

2 (50 bps) leads at 63% (about 6 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC. It's down 1 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 05:55 UTC
  • 2 (50 bps) 63% −1
  • 1 (25 bps) 26% −2
  • 3 (75 bps) 7.4% −0.7
  • 4 (100 bps) 1.3% —
  • 5+ (125+ bps) <1% —
Traded today$10K
Traded in all$868K
Favourite, 7 days+11 pts

2 (50 bps), the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 563%

Sep 28: 48% · Sep 29: 56% · Sep 30: 62% · Oct 1: 60% · Oct 2: 60% · Oct 3: 64% · Oct 4: 62% · Oct 5: 63%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
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