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PolymarketCloses January 1, 2027

Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)

December 31 leads at 45% (about 4 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 28, 10:19 UTC. It's down 7 points in the last 24 hours.

December 31 45% ▼ 7 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 28, 10:19 UTC
  • December 31 45% −7
  • November 30 34% +11
  • October 31 7.8% +1

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$9K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+4 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 21Oct 2845%

Oct 21: 46% · Oct 22: 44% · Oct 23: 47% · Oct 24: 45% · Oct 25: 40% · Oct 26: 55% · Oct 27: 49% · Oct 28: 45%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis capture Taiz, Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. The Houthis will be considered to have captured Taiz if the Houthis have established primary military control over Al-Qahira Castle (Cairo Castle) in Taiz city. The Houthis having established primary military control over an area of Taiz city encompassing Al-Qahira Castle will be sufficient, unless credible reporting indicates the castle itself remains outside Houthi control. Primary military control must be clearly demonstrated by this market’s resolution sources to qualify. Control which is credibly contested or disputed, or not clearly evidenced, will not qualify. Temporary raids, infiltration, isolated incursions, special operations, bombardment, shelling, sabotage, siege or encirclement of the city, or temporary disruption of government activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of capture will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual Houthi control has been established. If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying capture cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Houthi control as defined above is not confirmed by this market’s resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Only control established on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, will be considered. The primary resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and photo or video evidence of Houthi control.
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