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PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?

October 5 leads at 94% (about 9 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 26, 19:23 UTC. It's down 1 points in the last 24 hours.

October 5 94% ▼ 1 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 26, 19:23 UTC
  • October 5 94% −1
  • October 4 92% —
  • October 29 56% −19
  • October 31 55% −3
  • October 30 52% −16
  • October 24 48% +17
  • October 28 45% −28
  • October 27 42% −14

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$3K
Traded in all$140K
Favourite, 7 days−0.5 pts

October 5, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 18Oct 2694%

Oct 19: 95% · Oct 20: 95% · Oct 21: 95% · Oct 22: 96% · Oct 23: 98% · Oct 24: 98% · Oct 25: 95% · Oct 26: 94%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.
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