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Gyanesh Kumar out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?

The market puts it at 25% — about 3 in ten — on Polymarket, as of Oct 18, 05:22 UTC. It's down 1.5 points in the last 24 hours.

Yes 25% ▼ 1.5 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 18, 05:22 UTC
  • Chance of yes 25% −1.5
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$25K
Yes, 7 days+0.5 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 10Oct 1825%

Oct 11: 25% · Oct 12: 17% · Oct 13: 30% · Oct 14: 24% · Oct 15: 30% · Oct 16: 27% · Oct 17: 25% · Oct 18: 25%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gyanesh Kumar ceases to be Chief Election Commissioner of India for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gyanesh Kumar's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gyanesh Kumar, the Election Commission of India, and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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