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PolymarketCloses December 31, 2026

Curfew in a major French city by...?

December 31 leads at 26% (about 3 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 19, 10:25 UTC.

December 31 26%

The odds

as of Oct 19, 10:25 UTC
  • December 31 26% —
  • November 15 17% —
  • October 31 13% —
  • October 24 7.5% —

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$26K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−31 pts

December 31, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 18Oct 1926%

Oct 18: 21% · Oct 19: 26%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, Nice, Nantes, Montpellier, Strasbourg, Bordeaux, or Lille, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The listed cities refer to the municipalities (communes) of those names, within their official municipal boundaries. Curfews applying only to other municipalities, including suburbs or neighboring municipalities within the same metropolitan area, will not qualify. A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in a listed city, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of a listed city, and must be officially declared by the relevant municipality, the relevant prefecture (including the Paris Police Prefecture), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will qualify so long as it applies to at least part of a listed city. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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