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PolymarketCloses October 29, 2026

Core PCE YoY - September 2026

3.1% leads at 54% (about 5 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 22, 03:28 UTC. It's up 4 points in the last 24 hours.

3.1% 54% ▲ 4 pts · 24h

The odds

as of Oct 22, 03:28 UTC
  • 3.1% 54% +4
  • 3.0% 32% +2
  • 3.2% 8.5% −6.4
  • 3.3%+ 6.8% +1.5
  • ≤2.7% <1% —
  • 2.9% <1% −4.3
  • 2.8% <1% —
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+16 pts

3.1%, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 14Oct 2254%

Oct 15: 45% · Oct 16: 45% · Oct 17: 45% · Oct 18: 54% · Oct 19: 60% · Oct 20: 49% · Oct 21: 51% · Oct 22: 54%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for September 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on October 29, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
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