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PolymarketCloses November 1, 2026

Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?

October 31, 2026 leads at 18% (about 2 in ten) on Polymarket, as of Oct 6, 08:34 UTC. It's up 2 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 6, 08:34 UTC
  • October 31, 2026 18% +2
  • October 15, 2026 12% −3

Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.

Traded today$14K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days−32 pts

October 31, 2026, the last 7 days

Polymarket price
25%50%75%Oct 3Oct 619%

Oct 3: 14% · Oct 4: 48% · Oct 5: 16% · Oct 6: 19%

How it resolves

Polymarket's rule, word for word
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the Russian Federation at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time, . Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify. The case must be distinct from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee who reportedly passed away on October 1, 2026; subsequent confirmation, reclassification, or post-mortem testing of that patient will not qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Russian federal or regional public health authorities and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.
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