The odds
as of Oct 6, 06:41 UTC- Eugene Mele 25% +9
- John Pendry 25% +5
- Allan MacDonald 17% −16
- Federico Capasso 15% −2
- Pablo Jarillo-Herrero 14% −1
- Michael Berry 14% +1
- Alexei Kitaev 14% +1
- Charles Kane 14% +7
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$8K
Traded in all$27K
Favourite, 7 days+12 pts
Eugene Mele, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 13% · Sep 30: 13% · Oct 1: 13% · Oct 2: 13% · Oct 3: 13% · Oct 4: 54% · Oct 5: 12% · Oct 6: 62%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Eugene Mele; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Eugene Mele has won the 2026 Nobel prize for Physics, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: Nobel Foundation
See it on Kalshi ↗