The odds
as of Oct 13, 23:19 UTC- Texas 17% +12
- Kansas 15% +2
- Michigan 14% +3.6
- Iowa 12% −1.3
- South Carolina 11% +4
- Florida (Special) 11% −5.7
- Maine 8.8% —
- Ohio (Special) 8.5% +1
Traded today$7K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days−7.3 pts
Texas, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 6: 24% · Oct 7: 29% · Oct 8: 22% · Oct 9: 13% · Oct 10: 6.2% · Oct 11: 11% · Oct 12: 5.2% · Oct 13: 17%
The same question on Kalshi
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 13, 23:19 UTC.
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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