The odds
as of Oct 9, 21:23 UTC- December 31, 2027 27% —
- December 31, 2026 4.1% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$559
Traded in all$163K
Favourite, 7 days−23 pts
December 31, 2027, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceHow it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
See it on Polymarket ↗