The odds
as of Oct 10, 11:22 UTC- Lula 71% +14
- Flavio Bolsonaro 31% −12
Traded today$20K
Traded in all$26K
Favourite, 7 days+24 pts
Lula, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 5: 66% · Oct 6: 56% · Oct 7: 56% · Oct 8: 60% · Oct 9: 56% · Oct 10: 71%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThe second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 25, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
See it on Polymarket ↗