The odds
as of Oct 8, 22:24 UTC- Lamine Yamal 96% −2
- Harry Kane 96% −2
- Kylian Mbappé 63% +1
- Lionel Messi 36% +6
- Rodri 14% +1.5
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 6.1% −1
- Michael Olise 5.8% —
- Fabian Ruiz 5.5% +0.5
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$52K
Traded in all$348K
Favourite, 7 days−1.4 pts
Lamine Yamal, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceOct 1: 97% · Oct 2: 98% · Oct 3: 98% · Oct 4: 98% · Oct 5: 98% · Oct 6: 98% · Oct 7: 98% · Oct 8: 96%
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordThis market will resolve "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 3 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve "No."
If more than 3 players tie for the top 3 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official top 3 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final three places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗