The odds
as of Oct 5, 07:48 UTC- Before 2030 60% −4
- Before 2028 45% +3.5
- Before 2027 9.4% +3
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$602
Traded in all$846K
Favourite, 7 days−6.5 pts
Before 2030, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 66% · Sep 29: 63% · Sep 30: 64% · Oct 1: 62% · Oct 2: 62% · Oct 3: 60% · Oct 4: 60% · Oct 5: 60%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before 2030; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: OpenAI
See it on Kalshi ↗