The odds
as of Oct 15, 16:26 UTC- Above 50 5.5% −3
- Above 55 6% −4
- Above 58 6.5% −2
- Above 60 8% −2
- Above 62 8.5% −1
- Above 64 8.5% +1
- Above 66 3% −6
- Above 68 4.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$3K
Traded in all$186K
Favourite, 7 days−1 pts
Above 62, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 8: 9.5% · Oct 9: 9% · Oct 10: 9% · Oct 11: 9% · Oct 12: 9% · Oct 13: 9% · Oct 14: 8.5% · Oct 15: 8.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 62; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of Senate voting Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE) before Jan 1, 2027 is above 62, then the market resolves to Yes. KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcryptostructure/crypto-market-structure/kxcryptostructure-26jan The vote must occur in the relevant full chamber (that is, not a Committee vote, though not every member of the chamber needs to have participated in the vote). If no vote has occurred before the specified date, then any market not including "zero" within its count (e.g. "Between 50 and 64") resolves to No, and any market including "zero" (e.g. "Below 50") resolves to Yes. If the vote count is not specified but the bill is passed, any market including "100" for the Senate and "435" for the House of Representatives (e.g. "Between 65 and 100" or "Between 300 and 435") will resolve to Yes, and any market not including "100" or "435", respectively, (e.g. "Below 65") resolves to No. Once the market has expired, a request by any Member of Congress to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website Congress.gov or any other official source.
Settlement sources: Library of Congress
See it on Kalshi ↗