Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Polymarket's number is as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC.
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word
(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Germany; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Germany after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The following do NOT constitute a visit: Flying over the area without landing Layovers during which the person remains in an airplane Virtual or remote appearances Presence in international waters adjacent to the area Presence solely within embassy or consulate grounds Plans, announcements, or scheduling of future visits that do not occur during the applicable time period For the avoidance of doubt, a visit occurs only when the person exits an aircraft, vehicle, vessel, or train within the area, or otherwise physically enters the area not aboard one. Remaining aboard, including during flyovers, drive-throughs, and non-exit refueling stops, does not constitute a visit. Exiting within the area constitutes a visit regardless of duration or method of exit.
Settlement sources: The Guardian; local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in the country; official social media accounts of Donald Trump or their official representatives; official government sources of the country; official representatives or offices of Donald Trump; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Reuters; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; CNBC