The odds
as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC- Germany 17% —
- Japan 16% +0.5
- Portugal 11% +3
- Israel 8.5% −0.5
- Saudi Arabia 8.5% −0.5
- South Korea 8.5% +3
- India 8.5% +3
- Canada 8% +2
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$500
Traded in all$675K
Favourite, 7 days−4 pts
Germany, the last 7 days
Polymarket priceSep 28: 21% · Sep 29: 20% · Sep 30: 18% · Oct 1: 18% · Oct 2: 17% · Oct 3: 17% · Oct 4: 17% · Oct 5: 17%
The same question on Kalshi
Two venues, two sets of traders, sometimes two slightly different rules — read both before comparing. Kalshi's number is as of Oct 5, 11:25 UTC.
How it resolves
Polymarket's rule, word for wordIf U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
See it on Polymarket ↗