The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Above 43% 5.1% +3
- Above 44% 5.2% +3
- Above 45% 6.5% +2
- Above 46% 3.8% −1
- Above 47% 3% —
- Above 48% 3% —
- Above 49% 2.5% —
- Above 50% 2.9% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$152K
Favourite, 7 days+2 pts
Above 45%, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 4.6% · Sep 29: 4.9% · Sep 30: 4.3% · Oct 1: 4.1% · Oct 2: 4% · Oct 3: 4% · Oct 4: 4.7% · Oct 5: 6.5%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 45%; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 45%, then the market resolves to Yes. In order to fulfill the Payout Criterion, the threshold need only be met once during the period.
Settlement sources: VoteHub
See it on Kalshi ↗