The odds
as of Nov 10, 15:15 UTC- Chance of yes 9% −3
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$73K
Yes, 7 days−10 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceNov 3: 20% · Nov 4: 14% · Nov 5: 14% · Nov 6: 13% · Nov 7: 14% · Nov 8: 14% · Nov 9: 12% · Nov 10: 9.1%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement. Cuba must also acknowledge the agreement. A mere declaration of intent to start negotiations or "explore a trade deal" is not sufficient. If the U.S. and Cuba are part of a multilateral trade agreement announced within the timeframe, it is included.
Settlement sources: Government of Cuba; The New York Times; the Associated Press; Bloomberg News; Reuters; Axios; Politico; Semafor; The Information; The Washington Post; The Wall Street Journal; ABC; CBS; CNN; Fox News; MSNBC; NBC; White House
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