The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- OpenAI 17% −3
- xAI 14% −1
- Meta 9% —
- Z.ai 7% +3
- Nvidia 3.5% —
- Deepseek 3.5% —
- Baidu 3.5% —
- Moonshot AI 3.5% —
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$964
Traded in all$404K
Favourite, 7 days−6.5 pts
OpenAI, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 24% · Sep 29: 24% · Sep 30: 18% · Oct 1: 19% · Oct 2: 21% · Oct 3: 18% · Oct 4: 18% · Oct 5: 17%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, OpenAI; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If OpenAI has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settlement sources: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls)
See it on Kalshi ↗