The odds
as of Oct 6, 19:22 UTC- Before Jan 1, 2030 41% —
- Before Jan 1, 2029 30% —
- Before Jan 1, 2028 18% −1
- Before Jan 1, 2027 3.8% −2.3
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$294K
Favourite, 7 days+1 pts
Before Jan 1, 2030, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 40% · Sep 30: 40% · Oct 1: 41% · Oct 2: 40% · Oct 3: 40% · Oct 4: 40% · Oct 5: 41% · Oct 6: 41%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Before Jan 1, 2030; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes. Advisories dated for future events must be effective before Jan 1, 2030 to qualify. The category level must be the one that applies to the whole country, rather than a particular region, unless the country rulebook variable in this case refers to a region. A Travel Advisory is considered "issued" when it appears on the official State Department travel advisories website with an official publication date. A Level 4 travel advisory means "Do not travel" and is the highest advisory level due to life-threatening risks.
Settlement sources: the U.S. State Department
See it on Kalshi ↗