The odds
as of Oct 6, 21:23 UTC- Chance of yes 9% +6
Traded today$4K
Traded in all$221K
Yes, 7 days−0.5 pts
Yes, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 29: 9.5% · Sep 30: 9.5% · Oct 1: 9.5% · Oct 2: 8.5% · Oct 3: 8.5% · Oct 4: 8.5% · Oct 5: 6% · Oct 6: 9%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for wordIf legislation that would temporarily suspend or reduce the federal excise tax on gasoline has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage. For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to No. Joint resolutions are treated as bills. Treaties require two-thirds Senate approval for passage. The market resolves based on the first occurrence of the specified milestone.
Settlement sources: White House; Library of Congress
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