The odds
as of Nov 3, 12:23 UTC- Above 260 97% +1
- Above 270 92% +2
- Above 280 79% —
- Above 290 61% —
- Above 300 37% —
- Above 310 14% —
- Above 320 7.5% —
- Above 330 5.5% −1
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$11K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+3.5 pts
Above 260, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 30: 86% · Oct 31: 94% · Nov 1: 96% · Nov 2: 96% · Nov 3: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 260; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the number of transit calls through the Suez Canal as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 260 from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.
Settlement sources: IMF PortWatch
See it on Kalshi ↗