The odds
as of Oct 13, 01:06 UTC- Iowa 72% −2
- Texas 69% —
- Michigan 69% +8
- Kansas 63% +3
- Ohio (special) 59% −5
- Alaska 57% —
- Maine 57% —
- Nebraska 56% −9
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$25K
Favourite, 7 days+3 pts
Iowa, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 5: 69% · Oct 6: 69% · Oct 8: 69% · Oct 9: 74% · Oct 10: 74% · Oct 11: 75% · Oct 12: 73% · Oct 13: 73%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Iowa; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the margin of victory for the election winner in the 2026 U.S. Senate general election in Iowa falls within 0 to 5 percentage points, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin is the difference between the winner's vote share and the second-place finisher's vote share, measured in percentage points. Zero indicates a tie. Certified official results are used, subject to the contract's Fully-Conducted Elections and accelerated-resolution provisions. For ranked-choice voting, the vote shares in the last round actually conducted are used.
Settlement sources: Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division; Alaska Division of Elections; Maine Secretary of State, Division of Elections; Iowa Secretary of State, Elections Division; South Carolina Election Commission; Kansas Secretary of State, Elections Division; Nebraska Secretary of State; Michigan Department of State; Ohio Secretary of State; Florida Department of State; New Hampshire Secretary of State; North Carolina State Board of Elections
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