The odds
as of Oct 28, 14:20 UTC- 4.19 million 22% −17
- 4.65 million 3% −1
Each outcome here is its own yes/no question, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$20K
Traded in all$33K
Favourite, 7 days−21 pts
4.19 million, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 21: 43% · Oct 22: 42% · Oct 23: 40% · Oct 24: 41% · Oct 25: 41% · Oct 26: 41% · Oct 27: 41% · Oct 28: 25%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 4.19 million; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If NYC subway ridership reaches a seven-day average of at least 4.19 riders before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The subway had an average daily ridership of 4.65 million persons in 2019.
Settlement sources: Metropolitan Transportation Authority
See it on Kalshi ↗