The odds
as of Nov 7, 19:13 UTC- 30 days or more 12% −38
- 60 days or more 10% —
- 90 days or more 8.5% —
- 120 days or more 5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$100K
Traded in all$100K
Favourite, 7 days−38 pts
30 days or more, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceHow it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, 30 days or more; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If United States imports of live cattle from Sonora, Mexico, are suspended for a cumulative total of at least 30 calendar days between November 6, 2026 and March 31, 2027, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes. Only suspensions publicly announced by a U.S. federal authority and covering all live cattle from Sonora at every authorized U.S. port count. Days are cumulative, include weekends and holidays, and need not be consecutive.
Settlement sources: MS Now; ABC; Fox News; Associated Press; White House; BBC; CNBC; The Wall Street Journal; New York Times; CBS; NBC; U.S. Customs and Border Protection; The Washington Post; CNN; Reuters; Bloomberg News; Federal Register; the U.S. Department of Agriculture
See it on Kalshi ↗