The odds
as of Oct 9, 14:30 UTC- Above 125 bu/acre 97% —
- Above 130 bu/acre 93% —
- Above 135 bu/acre 84% —
- Above 140 bu/acre 68% —
- Above 145 bu/acre 51% —
- Above 150 bu/acre 24% +1
- Above 155 bu/acre 14% —
- Above 160 bu/acre 7.5% —
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$1K
Traded in all$136K
Favourite, 7 daysunch
Above 125 bu/acre, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceOct 2: 97% · Oct 3: 97% · Oct 4: 97% · Oct 5: 97% · Oct 6: 97% · Oct 7: 97% · Oct 8: 97% · Oct 9: 97%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 125 bu/acre; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If USDA NASS reports that South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 is above 125 bu/acre, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will be based on South Dakota’s 2026 corn for grain yield per harvested acre, as reported by USDA NASS in the first Crop Production Annual Summary containing the final 2026 estimate. Yield is measured in bushels per harvested acre. Corn silage yield will not be considered. Subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.
Settlement sources: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
See it on Kalshi ↗