The odds
as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC- Above 0 14% −12
- Above 1 8.5% —
- Above 2 6.5% —
- Above 3 6.5% —
- Above 5 4.5% —
- Above 10 4.5% −2
A ladder: each line is its own yes/no question on the same number, in order, so the chances don't add up to 100%.
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$146K
Favourite, 7 days−16 pts
Above 0, the last 7 days
Kalshi priceSep 28: 28% · Sep 29: 28% · Sep 30: 27% · Oct 1: 23% · Oct 2: 18% · Oct 3: 23% · Oct 4: 14% · Oct 5: 14%
How it resolves
Kalshi's rule, word for word(Each outcome is its own contract. This is the rule for the favourite, Above 0; the others read the same way with their own outcome.) If the total number of New World screwworm infestation cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 0, then the market resolves to Yes. Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (January 8). Cases that actually occur between the end of the specified time period and Expiration do not count, but newly reported cases during this window do count if they are backdated to 2026. See the full rules for how Source Agencies are prioritized. This market refers exclusively to human cases. Important information: To clarify, for purposes of this Contract, "cases" of New World screwworm refers to human cases only, consistent with the prior event in this series under equivalent rulebook variables. The Contract has been amended to provide that, unless otherwise specified, disease cases refer to human cases.
Settlement sources: national health agencies; CDC; national health statistics reporting bodies; World Health Organization
See it on Kalshi ↗