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KalshiCloses January 1, 2027

US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?

The market puts it at 7.4% — a long shot, about one in 13 — on Kalshi, as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC. It's up 2 points in the last 24 hours.

The odds

as of Oct 5, 08:42 UTC
  • Chance of yes 7.4% +2
Traded today$2K
Traded in all$818K
Yes, 7 days+2 pts

Yes, the last 7 days

Kalshi price
25%50%75%Sep 27Oct 58%

Sep 28: 6.3% · Sep 29: 9.1% · Sep 30: 5.8% · Oct 1: 5.7% · Oct 2: 6% · Oct 3: 8.4% · Oct 4: 7.6% · Oct 5: 7.5%

How it resolves

Kalshi's rule, word for word
If the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has issued a new combined license authorizing the construction and operations of a new nuclear nuclear power facility, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settlement sources: Nuclear Regulatory Commission

See it on Kalshi ↗

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